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Teams are surging while others are falling. A number of teams have cemented themselves amongst the best in the game since the deadline, while others are barely hanging on to playoff aspirations.

While we don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves here, it’s never too early to start considering the upcoming offseason market.

Over the next few weeks, we will be organizing our free agent previews for the upcoming 2025-26 class, giving you a look into the top starting pitchers, relievers, infielders, and outfielders who are set to hit the open market his winter.

After diving into the divisional races last week, we’ll also take a look at the wild Wild Card races…see what I did there?

Top Free Agent Starting Pitchers

Our first position group up was starting pitchers, an area of the market that is always fiercely competitive. Nothing is more valuable in the big leagues than quality starting pitching.

The full guide dives into every tier of the market, but today, let’s look towards the very top, and focus on the highest upside arms who will be up for grabs in free agency.

Framber Valdez is the lone true ace. In market where there are plenty of potential aces, there is only one pitcher who will be coming off a true ace-like campaign.

Valdez has been on the of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, with a 2.97 ERA across 145 2/3 innings pitched. The Astros won 13 consecutive starts when he toed the rubber this year, a streak that was finally broken up at the end of July.

Set to hit the market entering his age-32 season, Valdez is going to be the crown jewel of free agency. Age may limit the sheer amount of years he can get, but Valdez is going to be getting a healthy raise on the $18 million he’s making in 2025.

Pair of Padres arms face confusing markets. The San Diego Padres have a pair of pitchers who have ace potential, who have not produced that for them so far this season. Dylan Cease has been available, but he has pitched to subpar 4.52 ERA.

Michael King has been great when healthy (2.81 ERA) but has only made 11 starts due to injury. While they both would have been better suited if they had hit free agency a year sooner, few arms other more upside on this market than King and Cease.

Former aces finding themselves again post-surgery. Not too long ago, there were few starting pitchers better than Shane Bieber and Brandon Woodruff. Both were sidelined due to needing surgery, with Bieber going down needing Tommy John after a few starts in 2024.

Woodruff went down before that, needing shoulder surgery prior to the start of the 2024 season. Now, he is finally back on the mound and it looks like he hasn’t skipped a beat, pitching to a 2.06 ERA across his first seven starts back.

Bieber on the other hand is still working his way back, but has been dominant throughout his rehab appearances and is set to reach 80-85 pitches in his next start in Triple-A this Friday. The Blue Jays traded for Bieber at the deadline, freeing him from the shackles of the qualifying offer if he were to return and look like his old self.

Each of these pitchers have a pillow for next season. Bieber holds a $16 million player option, while Woodruff has a mutual option for $20 million, which comes with a $10 million buyout. Based on how he has pitched, the Brewers would be foolish to not pick up their end of that option just to pay the buyout.

Instead, Woodruff likely turns down his end, and ends up tagged with the QO.

If he keeps pitching to this level and leads a deep run in October, Woodruff may join Valdez atop the market.

Just Baseball Trivia of the Week

Our newsletter will have a trivia question every week to test and expand the baseball knowledge of our subscribers! The answer to the weekly trivia question will be at the bottom of the newsletter each week.

Which soon-to-be free agent starter had the highest salary this season?

A) Chris Bassitt

B) Lucas Giolito

C) Framber Valdez

D) Dylan Cease

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Wild Card Update

Ever since the adoption of the new Wild Card format, teams hang around in the playoff race way longer than they used to. A hot two weeks of baseball can propel nearly any team into the race, with 14 teams were are going to spotlight in today’s Wild Card update, who are vying for only six total spots between the two leagues.

The American League field is more wide open right now, but less teams are still in the mix. The National League side has two spots all but locked up, and one spot that is very much up for grabs with the latest freefall of a top contender.

Let’s dive in and take a look into the Wild Card races here in the middle of the dog days of August.

AL Wild Card

Divisional Leaders: Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros

1. Seattle Mariners (67-54), +3.0

2. Boston Red Sox (66-56), +1.5

3. New York Yankees (64-57), -

4. Cleveland Guardians (62-57), 1.0 GB

5. Texas Rangers (61-61), 3.5 GB

6. Kansas City Royals (60-61), 4.0 GB

In last week’s newsletter, we took a look into the top divisional races around MLB. In doing so, it was established that two of the AL divisions have a clear leader in the pack right now with the Blue Jays in the AL East and the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.

The AL West, however, is very much up a tight battle between the Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros. The Mariners closed a gap between their top rival at the deadline and have been gaining ground in the standings, now just a game back in the division.

Whoever fails to win the division is likely to make a Wild Card, with the Mariners leading the pack right now. The Boston Red Sox aren’t far behind, 1.5 games back of Seattle, and 1.5 games up on the New York Yankees.

Based on how the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mariners have positioned themselves to win this season (both in the offseason and at the trade deadline), these three are the favorites to punch a ticket into the dance, but are far from locks to do so.

The Cleveland Guardians largely stood pat at the deadline, with their main trade being a deal that sent Bieber to the Blue Jays, cashing in on an arm who hadn’t thrown an inning for them at the big-league level this year.

Winners of the final two games before the deadline, the Guardians went on to complete a 10-game stretch where they won nine games, winning four-consecutive series. The definitely can be described as the hottest team in this race.

Meanwhile the Texas Rangers have the kind of pitching that we all want to see in October, with Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi being arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball right now. Still, they have their work cut out for them over the final six-plus weeks of the season.

NL Wild Card

Divisional Leaders: Phillies, Brewers, Padres

1. Chicago Cubs (68-51), +4.5

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (68-53), +3.5

3. New York Mets (64-56), -

4. Cincinnati Reds (64-58), 1.0 GB

5. St. Louis Cardinals (61-61), 4.0 GB

6. San Francisco Giants (59-62), 5.5 GB

7. Arizona Diamondbacks (59-62), 5.5 GB

8. Miami Marlins (58-62), 6.0 GB

The Padres fortified their troops at the trade deadline and once again look like a top contender in the NL. With the Dodgers experiencing a recent skid, the Padres have ran them down in the NL West.

It’s only a one-game lead, but grabbing it likely emboldens the Padres to keep their foot on the gas to win their first division title in nearly 20 years (2006). This puts the Dodgers in the second Wild Card spot, one game back of the top seeded Chicago Cubs.

Like the Dodgers, the Cubs led the NL Central for a large portion of the 2025 campaign, but have been caught by their rival, the Milwaukee Brewers. With the Brewers being the hottest team in baseball and running away with the division, the Cubs may have to settle for trying to host their Wild Card series.

At the end of the day, the NL seems to have five clear playoff teams. The two from the NL West, two from the NL Central, and the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies.

Then you have the New York Mets.

On paper, the Mets should be part of that top tier of teams. But their starting rotation has all but self-destructed over the past two months, and now they look awfully vulnerable in this race having lost 12 of their last 14 games.

The Reds are best-positioned to unseat the Mets, just one game back, but that does not mean that any of the other fringe contenders should be giving up. All of these teams have something to play for right now, as a strong finish to August can put them in line to be right in the thick of the race come September.

Other Headlines

• Two of our top 50 prospects in baseball were promoted by teams in desperate need of a boost. The Cubs are calling up our 41st-ranked prospect Owen Caissie, while the Mets are calling up 42nd-ranked prospect Nolan McLean.

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Trivia Answer: A) Chris Bassitt

The veteran right-hander has a $21 million salary this season with Giolito following closely at $19.25 million.

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