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The Ultimate MLB Playoff Preview ⚾️⏱️
The postseason is finally upon us! We dive into the playoff picture with a full preview.
It’s the greatest time of year for baseball fans: the postseason. Major League Baseball’s Wild Card Series begins this afternoon and continues with games over the next three days before the Divisional Series kicks off on Saturday.
2024 has brought us plenty of incredible stories, many that will continue into the offseason. We’ll hit on some of those later, but the playoffs are here!
While the Yankees, Guardians, Dodgers, and Phillies await their next opponent, we’ll provide an in-depth preview of the entire postseason from matchups to storylines and everything in between.
MLB Postseason Bracket
American League Playoff Picture
The postseason feels more open than ever this season with parody around the league being at an all-time high. No team won 100 games, the top seeds were up for grabs until the last weekend of the season, and the final Wild Card spots were decided by a doubleheader.
In the American League, we’ve got a blend of familiar faces from recent years and young teams that have exceeded expectations. The Yankees huge addition of Juan Soto has paid off and earned them the top seed while the Guardians continue to prove doubters wrong every year.
After a brutal start, the inevitable Astros bounced back to remain the cream of the crop in the AL West. Meanwhile, the Orioles regressed from last year but still comfortably earned the top Wild Card spot. The Royals and Tigers were not expected to be in this position, but showed a ton of growth this season with young rosters as they’ll look to upset some heavy hitters this postseason.
The Yankees enter as large favorites to take home the AL Pennant, coming in at +175 on BetMGM while the Astros and Guardians follow at +350 and +375 respectively. The Orioles are next at +450 with the Tigers and Royals both entering the postseason at +1000 or greater odds.
New York Yankees (1) and Cleveland Guardians (2) on Bye
The Yankees finished the season strong behind their superstar duo and Gerrit Cole finding his ace rhythm once again to earn the top seed. Meanwhile, the Guardians secured the two seed as they’ve been leading the surprisingly strong AL Central for a while behind still-underrated superstar Jose Ramirez and strong efforts from a balanced roster.
New York will now have five days off after finishing up their regular season against Pittsburgh and they’ll await the winner of the Orioles and Royals matchup.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto lead this team offensively as they combined for 99 home runs and 253 runs batted in this season. Judge and Soto combined for a 199 wRC+, which is the second best average wRC+ by a teammate duo only behind Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig in 1927 (207 average wRC+). The rest of the Yankees lineup needs to come up big in the ALDS.
Aaron Judge is not in the lineup today for the Yankees, which means his regular season is likely done.
.322/.458/.701
218 wRC+
58 HR
144 RBI
11.2 WARLegendary season for the soon-to-be two-time American League MVP
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media)
7:00 PM • Sep 29, 2024
On the other side of the ball, Gerrit Cole leads a pitching staff that ranks 8th in ERA. Cole will take the ball in game 1 and holds a 2.25 ERA across his last 10 starts. Carlos Rodon has a 2.20 ERA in his last 5 starts and should get the ball for Game Two. AL Rookie of the Year favorite Luis Gil will likely start in game 3.
The Yankees are 5-8 against their divisional rival Orioles this season, which could set up an excellent matchup with plenty of emotion. They’re 5-2 against the young Royals, making that their ideal matchup.
Cleveland enters the postseason with time to figure out how they’ll set up their playoff rotation while also getting Steven Kwan fully healthy as he just returned to the lineup for two games down the stretch.
Jose Ramirez fell just one home run short of joining the 40/40 Club with Cleveland’s final game of the season being cancelled. He’s the undisputed leader of the offense with Josh Naylor and Kwan being the key secondary pieces.
Tanner Bibee will start game one from the Guardians as he has become the ace of the staff this season with Shane Bieber out, but the rest of the rotation is definitely a bit of a concern with Ben Lively, Matthew Boyd, and Gavin Williams as primary options.
The Guardians went 1-4 against the Astros which is concerning for them, but three of those five games were decided by just one run. A divisional battle against the Tigers, who they went 7-6 against this year, would be exciting if Detroit can upset Houston.
We’ll have more on these two teams next week once they’re fully in action this coming weekend.
Detroit Tigers (6) vs. Houston Astros (3)
Series Price (odds via BetMGM): Astros -185, Tigers +155
On August 11th, Detroit had a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. From August 11th onward they went 31-13 and cashed their ticket. They have an incredibly tough wild card matchup against Tiger’s manager AJ Hinch’s former team the Houston Astros.
No team in the Wild Card era (since 1994) has been 10 games out of the Wild Card on August 10 and made the Postseason.
Only one team has ever made it to October after being 8+ under .500 in August, the 1973 Mets.
The Tigers are closing in on doing both in the same year.
(Via… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media)
12:12 PM • Sep 25, 2024
The Tigers have won the hearts of many, but keeping up their winning ways against Houston remains to be seen. Houston won the season series 4-2 with a number of very comfortable wins. It’s important to note that all of their matchups came in the first half of the year before Detroit found their identity.
Detroit will have the Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in the American League fresh off securing the AL Triple Crown on the mound for Game One. The rest of the rotation is a massive question mark after they traded Jack Flaherty at the deadline. Reese Olson is the likely two starter but he’s recently off the IL and has yet to throw more than four innings in a start since returning. It gets really thin, really fast for the Tigers.
Fortunately, the Tigers bullpen has been one of the best in baseball in the second half and will be relied on heavily. The trio of Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, and Will Vest has been reliable all season and the top pitching prospect in baseball, Jackson Jobe, debuted last week and will likely join the bullpen for the postseason.
The Tigers offense is led by young stars Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter with many other talented but unproven pieces. It’s definitely one of the least experienced groups, but has the talent to get hot. Parker Meadows, Jace Jung, and others have come through over the past month and will need to continue to do so for them.
Houston enters their eight straight postseason as the most feared contender of the decade. They stood at 10-19 at the end April and many started to think their reign was over. They proceeded to go 63-40 from June 1st on and swiftly took over the AL West.
The Astros pitching staff has been decimated by injuries this season, but they’ve got ace Framber Valdez ready for the first game of the series and the rest of their options to follow. Yusei Kikucki has been excellent since he was acquired at the deadline while Hunter Brown has found himself since adjusting his pitch mix in May. Ronel Blanco has a 0.75 ERA in the past month and threw a no-hitter this season too.
That group is impressive and doesn’t even include future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander who has struggled this year, but could always go off in a big game. The bullpen for Houston, led by the trio of Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Ryan Pressly, started the season poorly but has been steady since then.
Yordan Alvarez’s health is a big factor but he’s expected to be ready after sitting out the final few games of the season. The top of the Astros’ lineup is as good as anyone’s. Kyle Tucker has found his groove after missing a large chunk of the year and Jose Altuve is one of the best playoff performers of this generation.
It’s David versus Goliath in this one. Let’s see who prevails.
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Kansas City Royals (5) vs Baltimore Orioles (4)
Series Price (odds via BetMGM): Orioles -185, Royals +150
Entering this season, the Orioles were projected to win 90+ games and compete for an American League championship. They’ve delivered on that promise and have a chance to make noise in the playoffs. The Royals on the other hand came in to the season with a Vegas win total of 69.5 wins, putting them near the the bottom of the league despite some big additions. Bobby Witt Jr. and a stacked pitching staff led the Royals to 86 wins and a Wild Card berth.
Baltimore comes into the postseason limping slightly offensively as the Orioles have posted a 106 wRC+ in the month of September. They’ve also dealt with tough injuries to their pitching staff and recently announced that they’ll be without Grayson Rodriguez for the postseason. Corbin Burnes, one of the top pitchers in baseball, will lead the way with deadline acquisition Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer expected to follow.
The Orioles bullpen is the biggest concern in this series. The bullpen combined for a 5.31 ERA in September. Keegin Akin, Yennier Cano and Seranthony Dominguez need to rise to the occasion.
Gunnar Henderson has been overshadowed this season by the other shortstop in this matchup, but has led the Orioles offense alongside Anthony Santander and Colton Cowser all season. The trio combined for over 100 home runs.
The season series favors Baltimore as they went 4-2 against Kansas City, but all the matchups were in April, so there’s not much to take from that data point. It’s worth noting that Alec Marsh was the winning pitcher in both wins by the Royals, so he could take on an important bullpen role.
Kansas City’s rotation has been leading the way all season with breakout star Cole Ragans and free agent signings Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha at the top. The trio combined for a 3.15 ERA across 559.2 innings. They’re as reliable as a trio of starters gets.
Lucas Erceg was acquired at the deadline from the A’s and has been one of best acquisitions of the deadline. He’s thrived in the closer role in KC pitching to a 2.88 ERA and 1.17 FIP in 25 innings.
The expected AL MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. had one of the best seasons ever by a shortstop and would have been in an MVP in many seasons. He leads an offense that is shorthanded and had a 61 wRC+ as a whole in September. The bats for Kansas City better get hot fast.
Bobby Witt Jr’s unbelievable 2024:
.332/.389/.588
.977 OPS
168 wRC+
211 Hits
32 HR / 31 SB
125 Runs
109 RBI
15 OAA at SS
10.4 fWar - 5th most EVER by a shortstopDid we just witness the greatest season by a shortstop in MLB history?
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media)
2:28 PM • Sep 30, 2024
The Royals are underdogs in this battle against the Orioles. They are the biggest surprise playoff team besides the Tigers following a 100-loss season in 2023, and they can’t be counted out. This profiles as an electric series with the two best young shortstops in the game leading the way.
Just Baseball Trivia of the Week
We’re launching a new feature of our newsletter this week as we’ll have a trivia question every week to test and expand the baseball knowledge of our subscribers! The answer to the weekly trivia question will be at the bottom of the newsletter each week.
Which MLB team has most the postseason wins since 2000?
A) Astros
B) Yankees
C) Dodgers
D) Cardinals
National League Playoff Picture
The National League has been nothing, but chaos in the final games of the season with the game of the year determining the final Wild Card teams yesterday. Despite the extreme hype surrounding the Dodgers entering the year, it took until the final games of the season for them to secure the top seed with the Phillies slotting in behind them with the second bye.
The Brewers were the first team to secure a playoff spot as they ran away with the NL Central while the Padres pulled ahead to earn the top Wild Card spot in the last stretch of the season.
With an insane doubleheader as a result of the storms on the east coast, the final two spots came down to yesterday when the Mets pulled off an unreal win in game one and the Braves took game two to put them both in the postseason. This ended the season for the reigning NL Champion Diamondbacks and set the two NL East teams as the fifth and sixth seeds.
The Dodgers lead at +165 to win the pennant while the Phillies trail closely at +200 and the Padres are the clear third at +475 odds. The Brewers, despite winning their division, are at +900 while Mets check in just behind at +1000 and the depleted Braves are the longshot at +1300.
Los Angeles Dodgers (1) and Philadelphia Phillies (2) on Bye
The two best teams in the league for most of the 2024 season lead the way in the National League and this season feels like World Series or bust for both of them.
Los Angeles has spent much of the season figuring out how to maintain success with an incredibly depleted pitching staff that’s taken hit after hit. Fortunately, they have two all world players in Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts to take away from the ups and downs.
The Dodgers enter the postseason with a playoff rotation that looks nothing like what we may have expected it to at the onset of 2024. Their crucial deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty and offseason addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the way. Walker Buehler follows after finishing the season strong with two one-run outings in his past three starts of the year.
With injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and many others, the final starter is set to be rookie Landon Knack who has started just 12 MLB games in his career. He has impressed, but has minimal experience which could lead to heavy bullpen usage.
The bullpen has been inconsistent at best with Evan Phillips falling out of the closer role and deadline acquisition Michael Kopech stepping into the closer role. Veterans Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen take the remaining high leverage spots and will be counted on heavily in the playoffs.
Shohei Ohtani, coming off his insane season in which he created the 50/50 Club, leads an offense that can take over games. Fellow superstars Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will look to improve upon last year’s playoffs while Teoscar Hernandez has been a huge addition with 33 home runs this season.
Shohei Ohtani's historic 2024 season:
1.036 OPS
182 wRC+
54 HR
59 SB
9.1 fWAR— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media)
10:15 PM • Sep 29, 2024
They’ll await the winner of Padres and Braves with their divisional rival posing a real threat considering they went 5-8 against this year and were taken out by San Diego just two years ago. On the other side, the Dodgers went 5-2 against the Braves this season and would likely prefer that matchup.
Philadelphia was in contention for the top seed until the final few games and they’re a force to be reckoned with as they made the World Series two years ago and have arguably only gotten better.
Ace Zack Wheeler starts things off for an excellent rotation that saw Christopher Sanchez emerge as another star pitcher this season. Aaron Nola is their steady veteran that follows which Ranger Suarez had a huge first half but has struggled of late and is definitely fourth now in this group. Nonetheless, it’s one of the best rotations in the postseason and has the upside of the best.
They’ve mixed around roles throughout the season, but the Phillies bullpen core of Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Jose Alvarado has been strong this year with deadline acquisition Carlos Estevez thriving as the primary closer now too.
The lineup is one of the deeper units in baseball led by Bryce Harper, who always seems to come through in big games. Their veteran core of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto has probably underperformed for much of this year compared to expectations, but can stack up against anyone on a given day. They would really benefit from Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott getting like they have shown in the past.
The Phillies went 4-2 against the Brewers and 7-6 against the divisional rival Mets during the regular season. The excitement around an NL East battle would be fun especially given their tight season series, but the Brewers could pose a threat as well.
New York Mets (6) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (3)
Series Price (odds via BetMGM): Brewers -135, Mets +115
Mets versus Brewers is the closest Wild Card matchup on paper and after the Mets willed their way into the postseason, many eyes will be on this series.
With their season on the line yesterday, the Mets shocked the baseball world as they scored 6 runs in the 8th inning to take a 6-3 lead. Edwin Diaz surrendered the lead, which set up Francisco Lindor for a go-ahead 2-run home run in the top of the 9th. Edwin Diaz redeemed himself with a scoreless ninth inning and the Mets cashed their ticket to the postseason.
Bullpen availability and freshness will be a main storyline for the Mets in this series as Edwin Diaz threw 26 pitches on Sunday and 40 pitches yesterday. Phil Maton also threw three straight days, logging 50 total pitched over that span. The Mets will rely on Ryne Stanek, Adam Ottavino and Danny Young in their first game against Milwaukee.
The Brewers are led by a three-headed monster of William Contreras, Willy Adames, and Jackson Chourio. Lineup depth is a concern for the Brewers, as they had a 100 wRC+ in the second half, which ranked 17th in baseball. The 20 year old superstar Jackson Chourio put the team on his back hitting .310 with a 150 wRC+ in the second half and he’ll need to continue that in the playoffs. Never great when a team is relying on a 20 year old to be the savior.
The Mets offense has the edge in this matchup as they feature one of the deeper lineups in baseball. Likely MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor leads the way with Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso Mark Vientos, Jose Iglesias (OMG), Francisco Alvarez, J.D. Martinez and Starling Marte to fill out the lineup. There’s not a dead zone in this lineup.
The pitching edge goes to Milwaukee, who will send ace Freddy Peralta to the mound in game 1 and then some sort of mix of Tobias Myers, Colin Rea, Aaron Civale and a huge reliance on the bullpen.
The Mets will have Luis Severino, who carries a 3.91 ERA, on the mound in game 1. Behind Severino will likely be Sean Manaea, who has pitched well this year, but was roughed up by the Brewers for five earned runs last week and then either David Peterson or Jose Quintana. Peterson has a 2.90 ERA and 4.58 xERA this year. The 35 year old vet Quintana has a 3.75 ERA and 4.49 xERA. It’s imperative that the Mets win game 1 with Severino on the mound.
Atlanta Braves (5) vs. San Diego Padres (4)
Series Price (odds via BetMGM): Padres -185, Braves +150
While this matchup wasn’t even determined until yesterday, it comes with ample reason to be excited and figures to be a good one. The Padres come in fully rested while the Braves are the exact opposite after depleting their entire pitching staff to sneak into the playoffs yesterday against the Mets. They’re also without arguably their two both players in Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider, who are out of the year.
Atlanta is set to be without soon-to-be Cy Young winner Chris Sale who was scratched from his start yesterday and is now not expected to pitch during the Wild Card Series. This puts them in a tough spot as rookie standout Spencer Schwellenbach emptied the tank yesterday too.
Max Fried will likely get one while they’ll hope to have Reynaldo Lopez, who has broken out in a huge way while transitioning to the rotation, ready for either Game Two or Game Three. The last potential game of the Wild Card series will likely go to 40-year-old Charlie Morton, has logged 80 career postseason innings, but is also sort of past the peak of abilities.
The bullpen has been a strength for much of the year but their top guys got hit around and had to throw a ton of pitches yesterday in the doubleheader. Closer Raisel Iglesias has been excellent, but is likely not available for Game One. Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, Dylan Lee, and Jesse Chavez make up the rest of the bullpen core and all have sub-3.7 ERAs this season.
Offensively, the Braves has performed much worse than expected and just not because they’re missing Ronald Acuña and Austin Riley now too. The only player on the roster all season with an OPS above .800 is Marcell Ozuna who is having a career year at DH for them.
Veteran leaders Matt Olson and Sean Murphy have regressed a ton from last season while Michael Harris has taken a step back as well. Ramon Laureano and Jorge Soler have become crucial pieces as practically the second and third best hitters since joining the roster midseason.
The season series favors the Padres 4-3, but the two teams haven’t met since July and their rosters have shifted. San Diego has a much more favorable situation and has been playing excellent ball in the second half of the season.
San Diego features an elite rotation at their best with Michael King, acquired in the Juan Soto deal, set to start Game One today. Dylan Cease was second in the NL in strikeouts this year and will likely start Game Two with veterans Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove finally fully healthy and ready to go for the following games. All four have been very steady of late and will give the Padres a shot in every game.
The bullpen may be even more of a strength though for San Diego as they made aggressive trades to acquire Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at the deadline to compliment closer Robert Suarez. While the later has struggled recently, this is the most intimidating bullpen trio in baseball with more support ahead of them from Bryan Hoeing and others including Martin Perez who can slide from the rotation to bullpen.
An offense that lost Juan Soto receieved a huge boost this season from Jurickson Profar’s career-best season and Jackson Merrill’s unbelievable rookie campaign. Manny Machado, Luis Arraez, and Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the way as well for a group that has found its stride in the second half.
Jackson Merrill in the 9th inning:
11-for-32
1.202 OPS
5 home runs
2 walkoff home runsHe's 21 years old.
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media)
11:21 PM • Aug 25, 2024
They’re certainly the most complete Wild Card team on paper and the Padres pushed the Dodgers for the NL West until the final week of the season. They’re pretty heavy favorites against Atlanta especially given the situation. However, the Braves do have experience and the ability to get hot and take off.
MLB Headlines
Double Triple Crown! For the first time since 2011, a pitcher in each league won the Pitching Triple Crown with Tarik Skubal securing the AL Triple Crown and Chris Sale doing so in the National League. They’re both locks to win the Cy Young in each league after accomplishing this feat and dominating all season.
The Oakland Athletics played their final game in Oakland in an emotional goodbye to the city. This was one of the saddest moments this season as 46,889 fans gathered to watch the final game in Oakland and show the world that they were not the problem. The A’s are set to play in Sacramento the next two years while their eventual home in Las Vegas is built.
Two teams have already decided that their managers will not return in 2024 as the Reds let go of Manager David Bell and the Marlins announced that Skip Schumaker will officially not return next season. This season was a disappointment for both franchises as they’ll to get back on track while Schumaker figures to be one of the top coaching candidates on the market this winter.
Amidst the wild playoff race, MLB announced that they would return to having players wear their own team’s uniforms for the All-Star game. This decision will please many fans across baseball who have been asking for this for years.
The Call Up: 2024 All-MiLB Team
With the Minor League season finished, we spent the past week diving into the top prospect performers from this season. We created our 2024 All-MiLB Team which formed a roster of the top players from MiLB this season.
On The Call Up, we spent two episodes breaking down the top hitters and top pitchers that made our roster and many impressive prospects who just missed.
Stay tuned with The Call Up this offseason for much more prospect analysis and a variety of player interviews!
Collectibles Corner: eBay Live Event Tomorrow
Just Baseball is proud to announce we’re hosting a very special eBay Live Charity Box Break next Wednesday, October 2nd at 4pm ET.
We’ll be breaking a 2023 Bowman Chrome Hobby Box + a 2024 Topps Chrome Hobby Box. All proceeds going to Conine Clubhouse and Joe DiMaggio Children’s Hospital.
Place your bids to buy a spot in the Charity Box Break and the chance to pull some incredible cards. Auctions are ending at 9pm ET. We hope to see you tomorrow at Bleecker Trading in New York City!
Trivia Answer: B) Yankees
From 2000 to 2023, the Yankees have 83 wins in the postseason. That’s eight more wins than the Astros who come in second with 75. No other team has won 70 playoff games in the 21st century.
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