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Our second edition of this newsletter comes with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season and a variety of things still up in the air. Last week’s newsletter covered the playoff race in-depth and we’ll hit on the key changes there later, but first let’s take a took at the award races across the league.

Many awards have been all but secured for quite some time now, but others remain competitive and still have a chance to shift in the final games of the season.

Award Races

This year has been a fascinating one with plenty of candidates emerging after entering the year as long shots to claim the top awards in the league while other superstars have simply maintained their status as the best.

A few key races headline this topic as the baseball world is in frequent debate right now regarding a few races. One way or another, it feels like a year that has sparked plenty of discourse in terms of what voters value most when it comes to these awards.

All odds are via Bet MGM. Use code “JUSTBASEBALL” when signing up

_{*Award sections written by Colby Olson and Ryan Finkelstein}

AL MVP

• Aaron Judge: -5000

• Bobby Witt Jr: +1200

Despite a recent “cold” streak for his standards, Aaron Judge is the clear MVP in the American League and will take home the hardware barring anything unimaginable happening. He’s having possibly the best year of his career after hitting 62 home runs two years ago as it has become very clear who the best hitter on the planet is right now. Judge leads the American League in almost every main offensive statistic and the only person in his way of a Triple Crown is the one other player still barely in the race.

Judge’s historically special season should not take away from what Bobby Witt Jr. has done this season. Witt could win an MVP in many other seasons as he’s accumulated 9.7 fWAR and is nearing a 30/30 season as best shortstop in baseball. Unfortunately, he’s in a race with Aaron Judge.

NL MVP

• Shohei Ohtani: -2500

• Francisco Lindor: +1000

The MVP race in the National League has largely mirrored what we have seen in the American League, with a top shortstop trying to run down a top slugger who is the heavy favorite. Still, with less than two weeks left, it is looking more and more like Shohei Ohtani will run away with the NL MVP, becoming the first DH-only ever to win the award.

Meanwhile, his top competition in the race has seen his case start to diminish, as Francisco Lindor is no longer looking like much of a viable threat to win the award. Lindor was long trending towards playing in all 162 games for the Mets, but has now suddenly missed some time with a back injury.

Lindor is day-to-day, and should still have some time to add to his case, but winning the award was such a thin needle to thread for the Mets shortstop, that it would take an otherworldly finish to knock off Ohtani at this point.

AL Cy Young

• Tarik Skubal: -5000

• Emmanuel Clase: +2500

• Seth Lugo/Corbin Burnes: +5000

The AL Cy Young race is Tarik Skubal's to lose at this point. He is currently leading the American League in ERA, and strikeouts, while being tied with Seth Lugo and Jose Berrios for the lead in wins, putting him in position to win the pitcher's Triple Crown. Skubal has helped pitch the Tigers into the Wild Card race with his performance in the second half, and should get the chance to shine a few more times before the season is done.

Emmanual Clase has the second-best odds at this point, but it would be a pretty massive upset for him to take home the award as a reliever. Clase has put together an incredibly strong season, pitching to a 0.65 ERA with a league-leading 46 saves on a Guardians team that may finish with the best record in the American League.

Clase should get some Cy Young votes near the top of the ballot, but it would be very hard to justify giving him a first place vote over Skubal. Same can be said for Seth Lugo and Corbin Burnes, who only qualify as fringe contenders at this stage.

NL Cy Young

• Chris Sale: -2500

• Zack Wheeler: +1200

In the National League, there are two viable candidates to win the Cy Young, and for both of them, winning the award is a long time coming. With only a few starts remaining, it certainly feels like either Chris Sale or Zack Wheeler will win this award, which would be the first one for either longtime ace.

Sale is the heavy favorite at this stage as he is in line to win the NL ERA title with the best ERA in either league at 2.35. Like Skubal, Sale is in line for the pitcher's Triple Crown, leading the league in ERA, wins and strikeouts.

Wheeler's case is that he is the best pitcher on the best team, with numbers that aren't far off what we are seeing Sale post for the Braves. For Wheeler to win the award, Sale would have to collapse down the stretch and allow him to finish with a better ERA, and that is not likely to happen.

AL Rookie of the Year

• Luis Gil: +110

• Austin Wells: +150

• Colton Cowser: +225

The AL Rookie of the Year race has been the most contested race with all three of the names above leading the race in odds at one point in time this year. Dating back to last Monday, September 9th, Luis Gil was being counted out of the race with +10000 odds of winning AL ROTY. Now, a week later, Gil is the odds on favorite to win the award after two stellar outings since coming off the IL with a back strain on September 6th. Gil is 13-6 with a 3.18 ERA across 135.2 innings.

Gil’s teammate Austin Wells is also making a strong case for AL ROTY. He started the year slowly hitting .204 with just one home run across the first two months of the season, but he’s settled into the 4 hole of the Yankees lineup and owns a 134 wRC+ with 12 bombs since June 1st. He deserves a ton of credit for keeping the Yankees afloat atop the AL East in the back half of the season.

Colton Cowser held the lead in this race for much of the summer, but he’s been losing steam over the last month and sports a .689 OPS since August 1st. It’s going to take an extremely hot stretch over the last two weeks of the season along with the Orioles coming from behind to take first place from the Yankees for Cowser to beat Gil and Wells.

NL Rookie of the Year

• Jackson Merrill: -500

• Paul Skenes: +225

• Jackson Chourio +3000

It’s hard to fathom that Paul Skenes is not the favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. How can a pitcher with a 2.07 ERA across 126 innings that is striking out 32% of batters not win this award? Jackson Merrill and his 4.7 fWAR that leads all rookies is how.

Merrill has been a superstar for the Padres this season hitting .290 with 24 home runs, 16 stolen bases and incredible centerfield defense. He’s even had a knack for clutch hitting with two walk-off home runs to his name. In most years, Paul Skenes takes this award home with ease, but Merrill has played the entire season and is a huge reason why the Padres are receiving love as a World Series contender heading into the post season.

Just Baseball Trivia of the Week

We’re launching a new feature of our newsletter this week as we’ll have a trivia question every week to test and expand the baseball knowledge of our subscribers! The answer to the weekly trivia question will be at the bottom of the newsletter each week.

Which player has been the closest to a 40 home run, 40 steal season (40/40 Club) in their career without ever achieving one?

A) Willie Mays

B) Carlos Beltran

C) Mike Trout

D) Matt Kemp

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Milestone Chases

The season coming to a close brings an occasion to dive into some accomplishments this season and within the career of stars across the league. Many of the players chasing these milestones were already mentioned as they’re involved in races for baseball’s top awards while others deserve recognition for these feats.

A couple of these milestones were achieved recently while some will come down to the final week of the year. Regardless, they are all extremely impressive in their own rights.

Shohei Ohtani 50/50 Season

We couldn’t start any milestone talk without discussing Shohei Ohtani and his pursuit of history in the final two weeks of the season. He currently has 47 home runs and 48 steals with an excellent shot to become the first ever member of the 50/50 Club. With the Dodgers still in a tight battle for the top NL seed, Ohtani getting a few more homers and steals feel extremely likely at this point. He’s already much closer than anyone else has ever gotten as he became the first to reach the 45/45 mark recently.

Juan Soto 200 Career Home Runs

While he’s set to finish third in AL MVP voting, Juan Soto’s fist season in New York has been exceptional. He just hit his 200th career home run and 40th of the season last night as he’s one of few hitters now to hit 200 home runs by just 25 years old. The number one priority for the Yankees this winter is to make sure Soto is there for a while.

Jackson Chourio 20/20 Season

Becoming the youngest player to ever achieve the feat, Jackson Chourio joined the 20/20 club with his 20th home run coming on September 13th. He has fully cemented his path to stardom, taking off in the second half after a tough first two months of his career. Entering this week since the All-Star break, Chourio is hitting .320 with a .984 OPS (6th-best in MLB). He’s set to become the face of Milwaukee for many years.

Yu Darvish 2000 Career Strikeouts

The exceptional career of Yu Darvish is not recognized enough around baseball, but he’s about to hit yet another big mark in his career. Darvish returned to San Diego in September and his past two starts have been sharp as he could prove to be a difference maker for the Padres come October. He’s up to 1,994 career strikeouts with a chance to reach the 2,000 mark in his next start this weekend.

Bobby Witt Jr. 200 Hits and 30/30 Season

He may not win MVP, but Bobby Witt Jr. has had one of the best seasons ever by a shortstop in MLB history. After hitting the 200 hit mark with two full weeks left in the season, he just secured his second straight 30/30 season last night with his 30th steal. With 10 fWAR on the season, there are more years than not in recent memory where he would have won the AL MVP.

Anthony Santander 40 Home Runs

Did you know that the player with the third most home runs in MLB behind the two MVP favorites was Anthony Santander? Well, now you do. He is having an unbelievable season and just hit his 40th home run of the season as he’s now set to be one of the most coveted free agents in the league this winter.

Jose Ramirez 40/40 Season

While not on the same tier as the MVP frontrunners, Jose Ramirez will once again appear on ballots for the award and he already secured his second career 30/30 season weeks ago. With 35 home runs and 39 steals, Ramirez has a shot at becoming just the seventh member of the 40/40 club if he can have a power surge over the final stretch with Cleveland pushing for the top seed in the American League.

MLB Headlines

Beyond our highlighted stories of the week, here are the rest of the headlines around the baseball world that you should know about this week:

A year in which the playoff picture has remained so tightly contested this late in the year has brought a scenario where almost everyone in the race has something to play for still as even the first round byes are far from secured. Last season, the Orioles had secured a first round bye at this stage while the Braves and Dodgers ran away with the National League ones. It seems like whoever wins the AL East will get a bye in addition to the Guardians, but no team in the AL has even reached 90 wins. Meanwhile, The Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, and maybe even the Padres are still battling.

The American League Wild Card race felt fairly locked up a week or two ago, but is becoming a fascinating race to watch with the Twins faltering of late and two teams behind them surging. The Tigers are fighting to overtake their divisional foe behind their exciting young core while the Mariners pitching staff is keeping them alive as well.

The National League Wild Card picture has gotten even more fascinating with the Diamondbacks struggling this week and opening the door for the possibility of the Mets and Braves both being able to sneak in. Those three teams are all within a couple games now for the final two spots.

Kyle Schwarber accomplished a feat last week that proved how much the game has changed over time. He broke the MLB record for most leadoff home runs in a season with his 14th of the year and and proved that he’s one of most successful leadoff hitters in the game.

The Call Up: Prospects Update

On a recent episode of The Call Up, Aram and Jack answered prospect questions from our listeners in this mailbag edition!

They discussed a wide range of topics including which 2024 Draft Class players we could see soonest in the league, the next top prospect in baseball as Junior Caminero graduates, the future behind the plate in Baltimore, and much more.

One of the most exciting college players ever made his MLB debut after a long journey that involved being draft by two different organizations and a season in between without substantive in-game innings. Kumar Rocker flew through MiLB with a stretch of insane starts and made his highly-anticipated debut last week, looking like one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

An incredible story from the prospect world comes from the Rays organization as prospect Chandler Simpson became the first player at any level of professional ball since 2012 to steal 100 bases in a season. He’s now up to 104 just a week later as he now has the second-most by a Minor Leaguer behind just Billy Hamilton’s 155 in 2012.

Follow The Call Up podcast feed, YouTube, Instagram, and X to stay informed on everything you need to know about the top prospects across baseball!

Not Gambling Advice

Peter nailed his Monday Night Football play this week with the Falcons winning outright in a big upset against the Eagles!

He’s breaking down his play of the game for Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football every week. Subscribe to Just Gridiron Fans for all his analysis.

Trivia Answer: D) Matt Kemp

In 2011, Kemp finished the season with 39 home runs and 40 steals as he finished just one home run shy of becoming just the fifth member of the 40/40 club at the time.

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