Nothing like a 1:30 a.m. EST news break! Wow. Welcome to the offseason!

We officially announce the surprise move of the winter as the Arizona Diamondbacks, not even thought to be in the picture for the top arm on the market, have signed star right-hander Corbin Burnes.

The Diamondbacks have made a massive splash and we’re here to break it down with more coverage to follow in the coming days!

Corbin Burnes Signs Six-Year, $210 Million Deal with Diamondbacks

Of the 336 people that entered Just Baseball’s Free Agency Prediction Contest, just TWO projected Corbin Burnes to sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Shoutout to that pair of people who can seemingly see the future!

Yeah, this was universally unexpected and of course, the news broke with half the baseball world asleep.

Let’s get into this deal and how this move to land Arizona a superstar came to be right before the new year.

Contract Analysis

• Six years, $210 million

• $35 million AAV

• Opt-out clause after two years

• Giants and Blue Jays offered more money

The market has been unbelievable hot this offseason with Blake Snell setting the pitching market early when he signed a five-year, $182 million deal with the Dodgers. Then, Juan Soto’s record shattering deal with the Mets for $765 million changed the market entirely.

The Yankees pivoted their offseason and inked Max Fried on a deal worth $218 million across eight seasons. Given the consensus that Burnes was the best overall arm available, it felt highly likely he’d top Fried’s deal in terms of annual value and Snell’s in terms of length.

He does exactly that now with this deal and gives himself the ability to opt-out and test the market again if he excels over the next two seasons in Arizona.

Many contracts have come in high this offseason and Burnes now signs the fifth-largest pitcher contract in MLB history.

Career Trajectory

It’s hard to look at what Burnes has done over the past number of years and not consider him among the absolute best in the game.

He has been just about as reliable and consistent as a pitcher can be over the last five seasons spent primarily in Milwaukee, with last season being in Baltimore.

In 12 appearances (nine starts) in 2020, following a brutal 2019 spent largely as a reliever, Burnes pitched to a 2.11 ERA in his breakout year and then went on to win the 2021 NL Cy Young with an even stronger season where he struck out 234 batters across 167 innings.

Burnes has now made at least 32 starts in each of the three subsequent seasons since then, while finishing top-eight in Cy Young voting each year.

He’s coming off his first year outside of Milwaukee in which he finished with a 2.92 ERA and 181 strikeouts across nearly 200 innings for the Orioles.

This is the definition of an ace pitcher but it’s worth noting that he is 30 years old and has seen his stuff back up a tad in recent years. For now though, he’s undoubtedly one of the best in the game.

Team Fit

This is where things get rather interesting because the National League is already beyond competitive heading into 2025 and the surprise team of 2023 is pushing the chips in to join the mix once again this year.

Arizona is coming off a disappointing finish to the season where they had to watch the Mets and Braves eliminate them after letting their playoff position slip away.

Zac Gallen leads an already strong rotation with veterans Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez in addition to youngster Brandon Pfaadt. Corbin Burnes now forms possibly the best duo in baseball at the top of the rotation and completes a very strong group of five that can compete with anyone.

Beyond that group, they still have Jordan Montgomery who may be traded but could also be an excellent swingman if he can bounce back. The bullpen has quality pieces in place and could add another still.

While they lost Christian Walker to the Astros, the D-Backs have already traded for Josh Naylor to fill that spot at first base. Corbin Carroll got back into true form last in 2024 while Ketel Marte was one of the best players in baseball.

This team has the makings of a competitive one and they just added an ace to the mix. However, the National League is about as good as it has been in quite some time with the Dodgers and Padres as forces in Arizona’s division.

We’ll have more on this story and how it impacts the season for the Diamondbacks coming soon on Justbaseball.com!

Just Baseball Merch

Our newest line of merchandise features team-specific shirt designs that give you the opportunity to support your team and Just Baseball. If you’re fired about Burnes heading to Arizona, get yourself a Diamondbacks team shirt here!

We have also restocked on all your favorites including hats, hoodies, and more.

Check out the full collection of Just Baseball swag here!